U.S. Container Imports Face Unprecedented Drop Amid New Tariff Challenges

Import cargo levels at key U.S. container ports are on track to experience their first year-over-year drop in over a year adn a half, as highlighted by the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. This downturn is largely attributed to President Trump’s recent tariffs, wich have begun to impact the supply chain considerably. These tariffs include a baseline 10% on all trading partners, reciprocal tariffs introduced in April, and an eye-popping 145% tariff specifically targeting China.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply Chain and Customs Policy, pointed out that we’re witnessing the real effects of these tariffs unfold. He cautioned that businesses will face increased costs alongside reduced cargo volumes—ultimately leading consumers to grapple with higher prices and less product availability.

The forecast suggests a notable decline in imports—projected at over 20% year-over-year from June into fall 2025—which could result in an overall annual volume dip exceeding 10%.For instance, March data indicated U.S. ports managed 2.15 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), reflecting a solid increase of 5.5% from February and an impressive rise of 11.3% compared to last year. However, this positive trend is expected to reverse sharply; may’s projections estimate only about 1.81 million TEUs—a staggering drop of nearly 13% compared to last year—and June could see even lower numbers at around 1.71 million TEUs.

Despite these alarming statistics, Ben Hackett from Hackett Associates believes claims about a broken supply chain are overstated. He noted that while container carriers are indeed cutting back on voyages and consolidating shipments for efficiency amid declining demand, reports of empty terminals or ships changing course mid-voyage aren’t accurate.

The contrast between current forecasts by NRF versus earlier predictions is striking; there’s been a important downgrade since March when expectations were more optimistic—forecasting growth through May with estimates around 2.14 million TEU (up by about 2.8%). Now? The outlook has shifted dramatically with May expected at just under two million TEUs—a decline of nearly thirteen percent.

Similarly concerning revisions have occurred for June’s forecast—from an initial estimate predicting only slight declines down to projections indicating drops exceeding twenty percent instead! The first half of next year might total around twelve million TEU—a mere increase compared with previous forecasts suggesting more robust growth before tariff announcements took effect.

Looking back further reveals that import volumes had remained high since mid-2024 due primarily to retailers gearing up for potential strikes along East Coast ports followed closely by fears surrounding post-election tariff hikes looming ahead.

In totality for last year’s imports? A whopping twenty-five point five million TEU was recorded—an impressive fourteen-point-seven percent jump from the previous year’s figures—nearly matching pre-pandemic highs set back in twenty-one!

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