The world's oil tanker fleet is behaving as if the Strait of Hormuz is reopening — even as the waterway itself remains only partially navigable and politically contested. From ship tracking data
The world's oil tanker fleet is behaving as if the Strait of Hormuz is reopening — even as the waterway itself remains only partially navigable and politically contested. From ship tracking data to freight rates, the signals are clear: owners and charterers are moving early to position vessels for a return to Gulf exports.
But the gap between expectation and reality remains wide, leaving the global oil shipping system in a fragile middle ground between crisis and recovery.
The most immediate evidence of adjustment lies in real-time vessel movements. Tanker transits through Hormuz, which collapsed to a fraction of normal levels during the conflict, are starting to recover. Before the war began on February 28, around 90 to 110 vessels passed through the strait daily, but flows collapsed by more than 90% at the height of the disruption.
Recent data shows traffic picking up again, with dozens of vessels making crossings on some days, although levels remain well below pre-crisis norms and prone to sudden reversals.
That stop-start recovery underscores a key point: the system is not yet functioning normally. Instead, it is being stress-tested in real time by shipowners probing the boundaries of what is safe and commercially viable.
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