“We estimate that coal shipments to China will show a 15% fall y/y during the first quarter of 2025, reaching a three-year-low. Seaborne cargoes have slowed due to weaker domestic demand and
“We estimate that coal shipments to China will show a 15% fall y/y during the first quarter of 2025, reaching a three-year-low. Seaborne cargoes have slowed due to weaker domestic demand and higher competition from domestic supplies and overland imports. Thermal coal cargoes have been particularly affected, though coking coal shipments have also decreased,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
During the first two months of 2025, thermal coal demand weakened due to a 6% y/y decrease in electricity generation from coal. Total electricity generation fell 1% y/y amid an unseasonably warm winter, and generation from renewable sources continued to rise. Coking coal demand dropped due to a 1% fall in steel production.
During the same period, domestic mining in China continued to ramp up, rising 8% y/y. A year prior, safety issues in Chinese mines led to a slowdown in mined volumes. However, this seems to no longer be an issue. Imports via rail have also continued to grow, especially from Mongolia, negatively impacting demand for seaborne cargoes.
“Tonne mile demand is estimated to have performed even worse than volumes, falling 25% y/y during the first quarter of 2025. Average sailing distances have shortened due to weaker
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