GECF: LNG adoption in shipping and bunkering to gain momentum
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has launched the 9th edition of the Global Gas Outlook (GGO), exploring key trends on gas trade across multiple industries, including shipping.
LNG adoption in shipping and bunkering
According to the GECF report, LNG adoption in shipping and bunkering is expected to gain momentum, with the number of LNG-fueled vessels growing at an annual rate of 15% through 2030. This growth is driven by IMO decarbonisation targets, expanding LNG bunkering infrastructure, and the cost advantages of LNG over conventional marine fuels.
Between 2030 and 2040, growth is anticipated to moderate to 10% annually as LNG adoption becomes more widespread, retrofitting increases, and alternative low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia begin scaling. From 2040 to 2050, LNG-fueled fleet expansion is projected to slow further to 5% annually, as next-generation fuels become more competitive. However, LNG will remain a dominant fuel for long-haul shipping and energy-intensive segments.
By 2050, LNG-fueled vessels are expected to account for 45-50% of the global commercial fleet.
Natural gas demand is also projected to grow in the domestic sector, primarily driven by Iran. Population expansion and efforts to extend natural gas access to rural areas are expected to boost consumption. Policy initiatives to expand the domestic gas grid will continue to underpin this trend, solidifying Iran’s position as a major contributor to regional gas demand.
The transport sector is also poised for growth. Iran is expected to lead the way in road transport, benefiting from supportive policies and low CNG prices, making natural gas an attractive alternative to conventional fuels. Saudi Arabia is also set to experience moderate growth in natural gas use in heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) as the country works to reduce domestic oil consumption in transportation.
Additionally, LNG is projected to play an increasingly important role as a bunker fuel, with significant opportunities emerging to service LNG-powered vessels along the Europe-Asia shipping routes. This development aligns with global trends toward cleaner marine fuels and positions the region as a strategic hub for LNG bunkering.
Hydrogen in the transport sector
Hydrogen is expected to see selective deployment in the transport sector, particularly through derivatives such as ammonia, methanol, and e-fuels. Demand for hydrogen in transportation is forecast to reach 26 MtH2 by 2050, accounting for 10% of global hydrogen consumption.
However, scaling hydrogen applications in transportation remains technically and economically challenging, especially in maritime shipping. Key constraints include ammonia’s toxicity, hydrogen’s wide flammability range, and the substantial costs and logistical complexities associated with large-scale storage infrastructure.
In road transport, hydrogen’s utilisation is expected to concentrate on heavy-duty applications, particularly long-haul trucking, where its high gravimetric energy density and rapid refuelling capabilities offer a clear advantage over battery-electric solutions.
Despite these targeted advancements, the limited adoption of hydrogen across the broader transport sector, coupled with uncertainties in technology development and regulatory frameworks, has led to a downward revision of hydrogen demand projections compared to earlier assessments. GECF concludes.
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