GMS: Markets are entering a post-conflict recalibration

Beneath the collapse sits an oddity: US crude inventories have fallen to their lowest since 1984, with Cushing below operational minimums, a tightness the price has chosen to ignore in favour of the reopening.

Freight has continued its orderly descent from the war peak. The Baltic Dry Index eased to 2,634 on June 24 from the June 1 high of 3,222, with daily Capesize earnings settling near USD 35,800 as the disrupted long-haul trades that inflated demand through the conflict normalise. The geared segments most relevant to recycling held firm, with Supramax near USD 21,400 and Handysize near USD 17,000 per day. The Capesize premium that kept the largest ageing tonnage trading has now fully unwound, and the freight side of the equation that held candidates at sea through the war has, like the fuel side, returned toward its pre-war shape.

The currency picture has acquired a second force. The Indian Rupee firmed to a six-week high near 94.30 on the oil collapse and improving capital inflows, the Pakistani Rupee strengthened to a fresh 2026 best near 278.10, and the Bangladeshi Taka held the floor of its band near 122.70. But the dollar itself is now strengthening: the Dollar Index has reached its highest in more than a year as US inflation climbed to 4.2%, a three-year high, and markets price roughly a 75% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase by September.

The Turkish Lira, domestic to its core, slid past 46 toward 46.40, a fresh record. The energy shock that drove inflation across the sub-continent has ended; America’s inflation, meanwhile, has reached a three-year high. The fire did not go out. It changed address. Detailed country reads follow on pages 2 through 5.

This is Ashura week, and the sub-continent’s yards are largely closed for the holiday and slowed by the monsoon both. Around them, two queues are forming. One is the growing line of cargoes waiting to move through a reopening Hormuz, which analysts now watch by the day. The other is the deferred wave of recycling candidates that the war’s end is finally releasing, with the Andhika Paramesti sold to Bangladesh at USD 460 last week the first of what should become many.

Between the tonnage and the beach stands the monsoon, which serves both queues with equal indifference and will not lift before September. The strait fills. The queue builds. The yards, for a few more weeks, wait. The war that would not end has ended. The season that always ends has not.

For Week 26 of 2026, GMS Market Rankings/Vessel indications are as below