Challenges and trends in the Maritime Industry in 2025: Keystone Law

The maritime industry faces significant challenges going into 2025, driven by global instability, escalating conflicts, complex sanctions, and the pursuit of decarbonisation. Key developments such as the Red Sea crisis, the war in Ukraine, and sanctions enforcement are reshaping the sector. write the Marine and Shipping team at Keystone Law – Pav Samothrakis (pictured, left), Alexis Petrou (right), and Alexandra Shishkareva (centre).

Since late 2023, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have become critical hotspots due to escalating attacks on commercial vessels by Houthi rebels in Yemen, forcing ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing voyage times and costs. To enhance security in high-risk areas, amongst other measures, shipowners implement Best Management Practices (BMP5), involving risk assessments, armed security personnel, and collaboration with military forces.  Additional geopolitical risks stem from ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas tensions, and disputes in regions such as Syria, Yemen, and the South China Sea.

There has been a rise in cyberattacks affecting the maritime industry and several major shipping companies have been targeted by ransomware, resulting in multimillions in financial losses. In response, shipping companies continue to invest in enhanced network security, endpoint protection and cyber insurance, along with crew training to prevent issues such as phishing and social engineering threats.

The inauguration of the Trump administration in January 2025 introduces further uncertainty for the maritime industry. Potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy, trade agreements, and sanctions could have far-reaching effects on international shipping routes, regulatory frameworks, and energy markets.

Sanctions compliance has grown increasingly complex. Authorities like the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) are targeting evasion tactics such as AIS manipulation and deceptive ownership structures. The growth in the number of rogue traders and “dark” and “grey” fleets has disrupted global energy markets, with the EU’s December 2024 sanctions package further highlighting these challenges, addressing shadow fleets and circumvention tactics.

To mitigate risks, maritime companies must conduct rigorous due diligence on counterparties. Beyond sanctions checks, this includes initial and ongoing evaluation of creditworthiness to reduce exposure to payment defaults, which are becoming more prevalent, alongside difficulties in recovering funds from defaulting entities.

Decarbonisation remains a critical challenge as the industry strives to meet the International Maritime Organization’s net-zero emissions target by 2050. Transitioning to low- or zero-carbon fuels like hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol is hindered by high costs, limited availability, and inadequate infrastructure for production and distribution.

Retrofitting or replacing vessels with energy-efficient designs requires significant investment and regulatory uncertainty and inconsistent global policies further complicate progress.  Collaborative efforts and innovative solutions are essential to achieving sustainability goals.

Managing risks amid such global instability demands a proactive and comprehensive approach. Contracts must include provisions for alternative routes, risk allocation, and indemnities while ensuring compliance with evolving sanctions regimes and war risk exposures. Proactive communication with stakeholders, such as insurers and charterers, is crucial to minimising disruptions.

Enhanced due diligence is vital, encompassing up-to-date sanctions compliance programs, training on regulatory changes, and detailed risk assessments for voyages in high-risk regions. Regular evaluations of counterparties are also essential, to mitigate financial and legal risks. Seeking expert legal and risk management advice should go some way to ensuring contractual and operational resilience in this volatile landscape.