Shipping emissions rose 4% last year despite growing take-up of alternative fuel: Clarksons Research

Clarksons Research has released its latest Green Technology Tracker, including full year 2024 data points, charting the progress of alternative fuel uptake and investments in energy saving technologies across the global shipping fleet. Key findings include that around 50% of all tonnage ordered in 2024 – the highest annual amount since 2007 – is now alternative fuelled with a notable return to LNG dual fuel technology.

Regarding the existing fleet, total well-to-wake emissions actually rose by about 4% last year, largely due to the extra distances sailed on account of ships diverting round the Cape to avoid the Red Sea area. This despite the fact that nearly 40% of the world fleet by tonnage is now fitted with Energy Saving Technologies, according to the data and analytics arm of Clarksons.

Commenting more fully on the latest Tracker, Steve Gordon (pictured), Global Head of Clarksons Research, noted as follows: 

With overall newbuild order volumes reaching their highest level since 2007, alternative fuel has continued to play a prominent role representing 50% of all tonnage ordered in 2024. 

Across 2024, we have reported 820 vessels ordered of 62.2m GT involving alternative fuel capability (727 orders of 52.1m GT excluding LNG Carriers), a record level of investment. 

There has been a return to LNG dual fuel technology dominating (accounting for 70% of alternative fuelled tonnage ordered excluding LNG Carriers, up from 43% in 2023, with methanol declining to 14% share from 30%). Overall, we have reported orders for vessels capable of using either LNG (390 orders, 297 excluding LNG Carriers), methanol (118 orders), ammonia (25 orders), LPG (72 orders) or Hydrogen (12 orders). 

Additionally, orders involving ‘ready’ status have increased to around a fifth of all orders (452 orders, 21% of tonnage ordered). Across the fuel types, ammonia and methanol have been prominent as alternative fuel ‘ready’ choices (ammonia: 130 orders, methanol: 320). 

Outside vessel segments that can utilise cargo (100% of LNG Carrier tonnage ordered in 2024 was LNG dual fuel capable, VLGC/VLAC/VLEC: 90% LPG/ethane/ammonia dual fuel), the 12,000+ TEU Containership segment (71% LNG, 17% methanol) and Car Carriers (78% LNG, 21% methanol) had the highest levels of alternative fuel order adoption in 2024. Meanwhile, the lowest share of alternative fuel uptake in 2024 came in sectors such as Ultramaxes (4%), Handysize (4%) and MR Tankers (1%).   

With the confirmed orderbook (~50% of orderbook tonnage is today alternative fuelled) and projected investment in the coming years, we forecast that over a fifth of all fleet capacity will be alternative fuel capable by 2030 (2017: 2% of fleet capacity “on the water”, 2024:  8%, 2030(f): >20%). 

Investments in port infrastructure and the availability of ‘green’ fuels continue to lag, with our Green Technology Tracker detailing 276 ports with LNG bunkering and 275 ports with shore power connection in place or planned but only 35 ports with methanol bunkering available and planned. 

With an ageing fleet (13.1 years on a GT weighted basis, up from a low of 9.7 years in 2013), around on third of fleet capacity rating D or E under CII last year and lengthening lead times (~3.7 years) at major shipyards, retrofitting of Energy Saving Technologies (ESTs) remains a crucial part of shipping’s decarbonisation pathway. Significant Energy Saving Technologies (ESTs) have been fitted on over 10,360 ships, accounting for >37% of fleet tonnage: this includes propeller ducts, rudder bulbs, Flettner rotors, wind kites, air lubrication systems and others (>580 ships with air lubrication system and >145 units involving “wind” assistance in the fleet and orderbook). Our tracker also includes 37 vessels in the fleet (plus 12 newbuild orders) testing onboard carbon capture technology. And the share of fleet that is fitted with an “Eco” engine has risen to over 34%.

We now estimate that shipping’s global GHG emissions will have increased by ~4% y-o-y in 2024 to over 1 billion tonnes of CO2e on a WTW basis and have moved above pre Covid-19 levels, with a higher proportion of time being spent at sea (amid Red Sea re-routing), some increases in speed (especially in the container market, albeit we project the underlying long term trend for declining speed will continue) and trade growth offsetting the growing share of alternative fuelled vessels, “eco” ships and tonnage with ESTs.”

The full version of the Clarkson Research Green Technology Tracker is available to subscribers of Shipping Intelligence Network and World Fleet Register.