Offshore Drilling 2025: 3 Things to Watch During a Year of Market Corrections

2024 has been another strong year for the offshore drilling rig market with high utilization and dayrates. However, the winds of change have started to blow, and the market is already showing some signs of weakening demand and declining dayrates across the three main rig types – jackups, semisubs and drillships. Inflationary pressures across the sector are the driving force of the market correction we expect to see in 2025.

Westwood expects full-year 2024 marketed committed utilization, which considers actively marketed rigs with charters underway or already booked with future start dates, to come in around 92%. This is down from 94% in full year 2023 but is still a strong rate indicating tight rig availability. For 2025, Westwood is forecasting a lower marketed committed utilization rate of 89%, with the semisub market to be the hardest hit of the three rig types.

Westwood’s top three predictions for 2025 are that there will be a slowdown in global rig demand, a pickup in rig attrition, and downward pressure on dayrates.

1.Slowdown in rig demand, but Global South to dominate going forward

By the second half of 2024, signs of slowing demand were already being felt, as several projects with pending