[1] Flat Outlook for Global Spend … but … Aadvantaged Projects Attract CapitalWith concerns of a softening oil market, we expect global upstream investment to remain flat or even fall – indeed…
- [1] Flat Outlook for Global Spend … but … Aadvantaged Projects Attract Capital
With concerns of a softening oil market, we expect global upstream investment to remain flat or even fall – indeed, the reported 2025 budgets to date show a 3-4% drop. This doesn’t mean companies won’t pursue new projects, but only the best will pass strict hurdle rates. We estimate spend north of $50 billion will be allocated to new greenfield projects, similar to this year, potentially unlocking over 8 bnboe of reserves.
The most high-profile development that could be sanctioned is TotalEnergies’ Venus project in Namibia. We also anticipate a wave of multi-tcf gas developments will move forward – in the Eastern Mediterranean, Chevron could sanction Leviathan Phase 2 (Israel) and Aphrodite (Cyprus), while Eni may take FID at Cronos (Cyprus). New gas projects are also in Southeast Asia, like Eni’s Geng North and INPEX’s Abadi LNG (both Indonesia).
- [2] Almost 50 bnboe of Reserves Up for Grabs
We expect year-on-year M&A activity to remain relatively steady. Most deal-making (as usual) will occur onshore North America, in the US and Canada, with consolidation remaining an underlying theme. But given the levels of large-scale activity that have taken place,
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