“During the first two months of 2025, bulker newbuilding contracting dropped 92% y/y to the lowest level in at least 30 years. While contracting in January was low, no new ships were
“During the first two months of 2025, bulker newbuilding contracting dropped 92% y/y to the lowest level in at least 30 years. While contracting in January was low, no new ships were ordered in February. Weak freight rates, high newbuilding prices, long lead times and uncertainty are likely discouraging contracting,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Dry bulk contracting has been slowing since the second half of 2024. During this period, second hand prices for five-year-old ships fell by 12%, impacted by weakening freight rates, whereas newbuilding prices only dropped 1%. As of February 2025, a five-year-old ship, on average sold for 86% of the value of a newbuilt.
Strong contracting in other sectors such as container and tanker has kept newbuilding prices high, as they compete for the same limited slots in shipyards. This has also led to long lead times and smaller bulkers ordered today can only be delivered from 2027. Larger ships may only be delivered from 2028.
“The dry bulk medium-term market outlook is currently very uncertain, which could be affecting contracting. The outlook for iron ore and coal seems weak, while a potential return to normal Red Sea routings and burgeoning trade wars
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